How to use Tactical Crime Analysis techniques in business scenarios

PID Perspectives

How to use Tactical Crime Analysis techniques in business scenarios

Tactical crime analysis stands unmatched among intelligence-gathering techniques. It acts as an intelligence multiplier, enabling law enforcement to work more efficiently, make data-driven decisions, and proactively reduce crime rates. It leverages hot spot analysis, link analysis, temporal pattern analysis, SOCMINT, OSINT, predictive analytics, and network analysis techniques. Though traditionally used in law enforcement, tactical crime analysis techniques can also be highly effective in business, especially in areas like fraud prevention, loss prevention, security, and strategic decision-making. Here’s how these techniques translate into business scenarios for risk management.

What is Tactical Crime Analysis?

Tactical crime analysis is a specialized approach within the broader field of crime analysis. It focuses on the short-term, real-time identification and assessment of crime patterns and trends to support active investigations and law enforcement operations. Unlike other types of crime analysis, tactical crime analysis concerns immediate crime control objectives and proactive policing. It includes high-profile crimes, repeat incidents, and crime patterns, explicitly focusing on crime series.

Tactical Crime Analysis vs Other Types of Analysis

Tactical crime analisys is:

Action-oriented for an immediate need
Conducted frequently and focused on what can be accomplished today
Directed to patrols and investigators
Focused on patterns of crime
The most time-consuming activity for a crime analyst

Strategic

Long-term analysis
Focuses on strategies, policies, and prevention techniques

Crime Intelligence

Focuses on people involved in crimes
Tries to understand the context of their lives and networks

Administrative

Focuses on the administrative needs of a police agency
Includes data provided to the community and media

What is a pattern?

A pattern of activity is two or more crimes that:

Identify at least one similarity in the type of crime, such as the offender’s and victim’s behaviours or characteristics related to the offender, victim, property, or location.
Present no known relationships between the victim and the offender.
Share characteristics that distinguish them from other crimes within the same time frame.
Are limited in duration (weeks or months).
Whose crime set is treated as one unit.

The Tactical Crime Analysis Process

The tactical analysis process starts with the analyst’s background knowledge. This includes their understanding of crime and criminal behaviour, policing and police strategy, jurisdiction, and the police agency.

Data collection and management

Data about incidents within the jurisdiction (for example, crime reports, arrest reports, CFS, and traffic crashes). Data about the jurisdiction (demographic statistics, businesses, new construction, economic indicators, etc.). Data from other agencies. Intelligence about persons and companies (criminal histories, phone records, social media). Data on police activity. GIS data. CAD and RMS databases.

Data scanning and querying

The daily process of reading crime and traffic reports to identify emerging patterns. Compare new crimes to old crimes. Look for unusual volume in a geographic area or during a particular time frame. Identify and prioritize top offenders and associations between individuals. Use qualitative and quantitative sources, as well as databases, at the analyst’s disposal.

Data analysis

Use qualitative and qualitative techniques to analyze the data and generate leads for further analysis.

Information dissemination

The data analysis results are relayed in a written product (bulletins, maps, emails, reports, etc.). At the response stage, the analyst loses control over the process.

Response

The agency takes the analyst’s work and develops tactics and strategies. Analysts then create reports to address specific incidents and use research and literature to find successful solutions used by other agencies.

Evaluation and feedback

The analyst gathers input on the previous steps of the process. Was the information valuable to the agency? The analyst should also periodically check in to see how the products are used and what improvements are needed. This can be done through surveys, focus groups, research, and networking. Training is also part of this process.

Crime Analysis Theories

Crime analysis operates under a few assumptions or theories:

The crime triangle or routine activity theory assumes that the motivation to commit a crime is constant, and there is a continual stream of offenders willing to commit a crime under favourable circumstances.
The rational choice theory assumes that crime is a rational choice wherein offenders weigh the perceived risks and punishment of the crime versus the gain or reward of taking a criminal action. Increasing the certainty, swiftness, and severity of the punishment will curtail crime because people will take no action or stop taking action when the downsides outweigh the benefits. This theory doesn’t account for mental illness.

Strategic Principles

Tactical analysis theories can also bleed into strategic analysis principles:

The 80/20 rule (Pareto principle) assumes that small numbers of offenders cause an inordinate amount of incidents and a small number of places have an inordinate amount of crime (hot spots).
CPTED – Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design.
DDACTS – Data Drive Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety.

How to use Tactical Crime Analysis in Business Scenarios

Crime analysis techniques and processes provide a data-driven approach to risk management. Adapting these methods to business practices allows companies to move from reactive to proactive, building resilience in the face of modern threats. Here are some practical scenarios.

Hot spot analysis in retail security and loss prevention

In retail, hot spot analysis can be used to identify locations or areas within stores where theft or losses occur most frequently. By analyzing where security incidents tend to cluster, businesses can allocate security personnel and surveillance cameras to high-risk areas, reducing shrinkage and improving asset protection.

Example: A large retail chain could use hot spot analysis to determine which locations have the highest theft rates. This would allow the chain to enhance security measures in these locations by installing more cameras or increasing on-floor staff presence.

Link analysis in fraud detection and investigation

Link analysis helps uncover relationships between individuals, accounts, or transactions. It is particularly useful in detecting fraud rings or coordinated schemes. Companies can better understand and combat internal and external fraud by mapping connections between suspects or transactions.

Example: In a financial institution, link analysis might identify relationships between bank accounts, loan applications, and suspicious identities, uncovering potentially coordinated fraud schemes or money-laundering networks.

Temporal pattern analysis in security and risk management

Temporal analysis is beneficial for identifying patterns in incidents that occur at certain times or seasons, which can inform staffing and security strategies. Understanding the timing of incidents enables companies to mitigate risks during peak times proactively.

Example: A casino might use temporal analysis to detect a pattern of increased cheating attempts during certain shifts or seasons. This would allow management to adjust staff oversight accordingly or implement additional surveillance during high-risk times.

SOCMINT and OSINT for brand and reputation management

By analyzing social media and publicly available data, companies can track mentions of their brand, detect threats to reputation, and identify emerging crises early. OSINT can also help companies assess potential business partners and monitor for insider threats.

Example: A company might use OSINT to monitor for leaks of proprietary information on social media or to detect organized campaigns or fraud that could harm their reputation.

Predictive analysis for crime and incident prevention in high-risk industries

Predictive analytics can forecast potential risks, allowing businesses to plan and mitigate issues before they arise. In sectors with high risk exposure, predictive techniques help with proactive decision-making.

Example: A logistics company might use predictive analytics to anticipate theft or vandalism of goods stored in particular warehouses or during specific transit routes. This would increase security around high-value shipments or alter routes based on risk profiles.

Network analysis for internal risk assessment and investigation

Network analysis can help identify clusters of employees or clients that may be engaging in unethical behaviour, such as insider trading or other coordinated illicit activities. By examining relationships within organizational data, companies can spot potential risks.

Example: An investment firm might employ network analysis to investigate whether certain employees are engaging in insider trading by analyzing communication patterns, trades, and access logs to detect any suspicious coordinated behaviour.

Benefits of using tactical crime analysis techniques in business

There are several benefits of using technical crime analysis techniques in business scenarios:

Reduces Financial Losses: Early detection of fraudulent activities or theft can save companies significant losses and prevent costly legal issues.
Enhances Security and Compliance: Data-driven insights from crime analysis make achieving targeted security improvements and adhering to regulatory standards easier.
Improves Customer and Employee Trust: Visible, adequate security measures create a safe environment for customers and employees, fostering trust and a positive reputation.
Optimizes Resource Allocation: Companies can strategically deploy resources—such as security personnel, surveillance technology, or auditing tools—based on actionable insights, optimizing expenditures and reducing waste.

At Negative PID, we can help you implement these strategies for most use cases. Contact us to discuss your intelligence project!

Credits: Jenny Zawitz (IACA) on Tactical Crime Analysis concepts.

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At Negative PID, we are passionate about what we do. We enjoy writing about it and sharing our insights with whoever might find it helpful.

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